TAG's Weekly News Analysis
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A World at War and A War of Worlds
The streets of Midtown East came alive with diplomacy this week, as global leaders convened for the 81st UN General Assembly (UNGA) and New Yorkers grumbled at the additional road closures. But underpinning discussions of peace and security is the cold hard fact that much of the world is either currently at war, or feeling...
Conflicts, Controversy, and Corruption,
Tehran is sustaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to keep energy prices elevated while deliberately keeping the conflict below the threshold of full-scale war. Iranian hardliners see rising US inflation and the Fed's recent rate hike as evidence that their strategy is increasing pressure on Washington, but Iran's growing economic isolation—including tighter Turkish trade...
Lines of Leverage
Iran's shifting its pressure campaign from Hormuz toward the Bab el-Mandeb this week, betting that growing Houthi control of the Red Sea chokepoint can provide Tehran with greater leverage over Washington. Shipping volumes through Hormuz have collapsed amid renewed US-Iran kinetic flare-ups, while rapid Houthi advances in Yemen now threaten to give Iran an additional...
Strategic Power Plays
Prospects for a durable off-ramp to the US-Iran conflict remain limited, as negotiations to re-open the Strait of Hormuz remain directed by Iran's maximalist hardline leadership. Rather than seeking a compromise which secures its interests while appeasing Washington with some concessions, Tehran appears intent to leave no room for the US to claim a diplomatic...
Converging Contests
The US-Iran conflict is now seeing the risk of escalation extending beyond direct exchanges between Washington and Tehran. While both sides appear to be calibrating their own strikes to avoid a return to full-scale conflict, peripheral actors—including the Houthis and Iran-aligned groups in Iraq—are expanding the geographic scope of the conflict. Regional governments face growing...
Breaking the Balance
With military confrontation back in full force this week, Washington and Tehran are headed toward another collision course resembling the peak of hostilities last spring. The June framework has eroded and been replaced by a familiar resumption of kinetic attacks, primarily targeting the Iranian coastline of the Strait of Hormuz, as both the US and...
FILTER BY:
SEARCH FOR:
A World at War and A War of Worlds
The streets of Midtown East came alive with diplomacy this week, as global leaders convened for the 81st UN General Assembly (UNGA) and New Yorkers grumbled at the additional road closures. But underpinning discussions of peace and security is the cold hard fact that much of the world is either currently at war, or feeling...
The Oracle of Langley Returns: Jack Devine on Iran, Ukraine and the AI Arms Race
Former CIA acting director Jack Devine is back on Risk & Return, six months after he called the Iran conflict almost move for move. This week he tells Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino why there is still no deal on the table, why Tehran thinks it has the upper hand heading into the midterms, and...
‘The rules have changed’: has Russia begun to order assassinations on US soil?
Why would the Russians cross this red line? Jack Devine, a former associate director of operations at the CIA, said that the Kremlin had perhaps become blase about the potential repercussions – but that it could prove to be a misstep.
... Conflicts, Controversy, and Corruption,
Tehran is sustaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to keep energy prices elevated while deliberately keeping the conflict below the threshold of full-scale war. Iranian hardliners see rising US inflation and the Fed's recent rate hike as evidence that their strategy is increasing pressure on Washington, but Iran's growing economic isolation—including tighter Turkish trade...
Lines of Leverage
Iran's shifting its pressure campaign from Hormuz toward the Bab el-Mandeb this week, betting that growing Houthi control of the Red Sea chokepoint can provide Tehran with greater leverage over Washington. Shipping volumes through Hormuz have collapsed amid renewed US-Iran kinetic flare-ups, while rapid Houthi advances in Yemen now threaten to give Iran an additional...
