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TAG's Weekly News Analysis

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Is All That Glitters Gold?

Dear Friends, As the seasons begin to change, I’m struck by the difference between what we see and what’s happening beneath the surface- both in the natural world and the political one. When it comes to the alliance displayed among China, Russia, and North Korea, I’m wary of overestimating the strength of their friendship. I’m...

Forged in Friction

I’m pleased to share another week of analysis with you in my 3+1 Weekly Risk Report. I also invite you to take a look at my op-ed which ran yesterday in USA Today. The drug cartel threat is a mounting national security concern. But we must partner with Mexico to prosecute the drug war in...

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Summits and Stalemates

Less than a week after President Trump’s departure from Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in China in a summit that will inevitably be viewed through the lens of Washington's recent diplomatic engagement with President Xi. Officially, the meeting is about strengthening the Sino-Russian relationship—something Beijing insists is not mutually exclusive to a stable...

Linked Leverage

The conflict between Iran and Washington has evolved into a fight between Iranian resilience and US patience, and so far Tehran appears confident that the impasse will ultimately work in its favor. Iran knows that President Trump is hesitant to resume kinetic attacks—both because of the risk it this poses to American lives and the...

Shifting Red Lines

The ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has devolved into a high-stakes game of chicken rather than a path to a diplomatic resolution. Iran is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite the US blockade, and Washington is probing how far it can push back without triggering a full-scale conflict....

Jack Devine: The Spymaster Who Goes to Mass

Speaking about life after the Central Intelligence Agency, Jack Devine became nostalgic. “I’m having a lot of fun,” he said, “but I’m not allowed to overthrow governments.” Mr. Devine, 73, who chronicles his 32 years at the C.I.A. in the memoir “Good Hunting: An American Spymaster’s Story,” had a role in the Iran-contra affair, the...

Successful Compromise

Dear Friends, As the new year approaches, I’m struck by how nations are carefully balancing their economic needs with their political ones, and the compromises they’re making in the process. Whether the US should allow semiconductor chips to be sent to China or if Israel should send gas to Egypt are the types of decisions...

Seizing Opportunity

There was a major escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against the Venezuelan regime this week when the US military seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper off the coast of Venezuela on the very same day that the Nobel Peace Prize was being awarded to Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader. The Trump administration has been...

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