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Carrots and Sticks, and Carrot Sticks

Dear Friends,   As we navigate another active week in global affairs, I’m struck by the expansive nature and wide range of Washington’s foreign policy efforts. From President Trump’s surprise confrontation with one of Africa’s most populous nations to the high-stakes electoral drama unfolding in Baghdad, Washington is trying to exert influence through a combination...

All Roads Lead to China 

Dear Friends,   It’s Halloween and Washington’s closing out a week of tricks and treats designed to counter Chinese influence on both the political and economic fronts. On his trip to Asia, President Trump was able to secure important trade and investment deals with Japan and South Korea to help temper Chinese regional dominance, but...

Power In Between

Dear Friends,   In the competition between the world’s heaviest economic hitters, there’s a ripe space for other well-positioned nations to build clout and exploit the tensions all around them. We’re seeing this in the Middle East, where Qatar continues to have an outsized impact on the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, in Afghanistan, where the Taliban...

A Mixed Bag of Weapons

Dear Friends,   The divide between economic and political deals is narrowing, and with it comes a host of tensions and opportunities. The trade war between China and the United States is heating up again, threatening supply chains and striking market fears, but the volatility is both derived from political tensions and forming new ones....

The Business of Peace

Dear Friends,   Two years after Hamas unleashed a devastating attack on Israel that spurred a wider regional battle and a tragic war in Gaza, we are in a moment of cautious hope. A Trump-brokered ceasefire promises to lower the temperature and allow both Palestinians and Israelis to pause and take a breath. It’s not...

Disruptors Abound

Dear Friends,   Silicon Valley and the venture capitalists who built it were the first to welcome “disruptors.” It now seems society more broadly has grown to embrace them. Different from innovators or trailblazers, disruptors aren’t too worried about breaking things. They’re fast, nimble, and action-oriented. They’re not afraid to be wrong. When I look...

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Stuck in the Middle

The Middle East is erupting again this week, with kinetic attacks ranging from Iranian missiles launched at Israel to US strikes on petrochemical plants in Iran—but the military escalation is likely aimed to prompt a quicker diplomatic solution, not derail one. Neither side wants to continue full-scale fighting, but if Iran remains firm in its...

Agreeing to Disagree

Washington and Tehran both want a deal, but not the same one. For the White House, the priority is reducing tensions in the Gulf, securing freedom of navigation through Hormuz, and preserving space for a longer diplomatic process on the nuclear issue. Iran, by contrast, appears to be seeking an arrangement that demonstrates the limits...

Managing The Edge

Washington and Tehran are edging toward an agreement neither side fully trusts, and neither side can afford to abandon. Reports that a draft framework had been largely negotiated briefly sent oil prices tumbling this week on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could stabilize and sanctions relief might follow. But on the same day, US...

Summits and Stalemates

Less than a week after President Trump’s departure from Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in China in a summit that will inevitably be viewed through the lens of Washington's recent diplomatic engagement with President Xi. Officially, the meeting is about strengthening the Sino-Russian relationship—something Beijing insists is not mutually exclusive to a stable...

Linked Leverage

The conflict between Iran and Washington has evolved into a fight between Iranian resilience and US patience, and so far Tehran appears confident that the impasse will ultimately work in its favor. Iran knows that President Trump is hesitant to resume kinetic attacks—both because of the risk it this poses to American lives and the...

Shifting Red Lines

The ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has devolved into a high-stakes game of chicken rather than a path to a diplomatic resolution. Iran is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite the US blockade, and Washington is probing how far it can push back without triggering a full-scale conflict....

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