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TAG's Weekly News Analysis

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Linked Leverage

The conflict between Iran and Washington has evolved into a fight between Iranian resilience and US patience, and so far Tehran appears confident that the impasse will ultimately work in its favor. Iran knows that President Trump is hesitant to resume kinetic attacks—both because of the risk it this poses to American lives and the...

Shifting Red Lines

The ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has devolved into a high-stakes game of chicken rather than a path to a diplomatic resolution. Iran is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite the US blockade, and Washington is probing how far it can push back without triggering a full-scale conflict....

Successful Compromise

Dear Friends, As the new year approaches, I’m struck by how nations are carefully balancing their economic needs with their political ones, and the compromises they’re making in the process. Whether the US should allow semiconductor chips to be sent to China or if Israel should send gas to Egypt are the types of decisions...

Seizing Opportunity

There was a major escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against the Venezuelan regime this week when the US military seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper off the coast of Venezuela on the very same day that the Nobel Peace Prize was being awarded to Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader. The Trump administration has been...

Conflicting Accounts

Dear Friends,   The kinetic wars of the past several years have sparked an urgent need for increased diplomacy and military defenses alike. We’re seeing both at play right now in Eastern Europe, where Washington is trying to advance ceasefire negotiations while developments on the physical battlefield might be the ultimate decider. We discuss this...

Slowly, then All at Once

Dear Friends,   New security developments—which appear to spring up overnight—are often underpinned by growing tensions. Twin terrorist attacks within 24 hours in South Asia. Coalition governments teetering on the brink in places like Israel. Military buildups accelerating among two former WWII Axis powers. Mass protests materializing quickly in Mexico. For those of us who...

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A World at War and A War of Worlds

The streets of Midtown East came alive with diplomacy this week, as global leaders convened for the 81st UN General Assembly (UNGA) and New Yorkers grumbled at the additional road closures. But underpinning discussions of peace and security is the cold hard fact that much of the world is either currently at war, or feeling...

The Oracle of Langley Returns: Jack Devine on Iran, Ukraine and the AI Arms Race

Former CIA acting director Jack Devine is back on Risk & Return, six months after he called the Iran conflict almost move for move. This week he tells Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino why there is still no deal on the table, why Tehran thinks it has the upper hand heading into the midterms, and...

‘The rules have changed’: has Russia begun to order assassinations on US soil?

Why would the Russians cross this red line? Jack Devine, a former associate director of operations at the CIA, said that the Kremlin had perhaps become blase about the potential repercussions – but that it could prove to be a misstep.

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Conflicts, Controversy, and Corruption,

Tehran is sustaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to keep energy prices elevated while deliberately keeping the conflict below the threshold of full-scale war. Iranian hardliners see rising US inflation and the Fed's recent rate hike as evidence that their strategy is increasing pressure on Washington, but Iran's growing economic isolation—including tighter Turkish trade...

Lines of Leverage

Iran's shifting its pressure campaign from Hormuz toward the Bab el-Mandeb this week, betting that growing Houthi control of the Red Sea chokepoint can provide Tehran with greater leverage over Washington. Shipping volumes through Hormuz have collapsed amid renewed US-Iran kinetic flare-ups, while rapid Houthi advances in Yemen now threaten to give Iran an additional...

Bloomberg Surveillance: CPI and Security

[19:00] Jack Devine, former CIA official and founder of The Arkin Group, reflects on 25 years since 9/11 and the current state of US national security.

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