Strategic Power Plays
Prospects for a durable off-ramp to the US-Iran conflict remain limited, as negotiations to re-open the Strait of Hormuz remain directed by Iran’s maximalist hardline leadership. Rather than seeking a compromise which secures its interests while appeasing Washington with some concessions, Tehran appears intent to leave no room for the US to claim a diplomatic success. Iran’s demands for unilateral control of the waterway remain a central sticking point, as do fees, and even if an agreement is reached in the coming days, differing expectations over sanctions relief, shipping governance, and the treatment of foreign vessels are likely to leave any arrangement vulnerable to collapse and renewed fighting.
