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TAG's Weekly News Analysis

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Under Attack

Dear Friends,   It was an emotional week for Americans as the relentless disease of political violence claimed its latest tragic victim in the young Charlie Kirk, only to be followed a day later by the anniversary of 9/11 – where we commemorated the thousands of innocents who were senselessly killed under the guise of ideology...

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Is All That Glitters Gold?

Dear Friends, As the seasons begin to change, I’m struck by the difference between what we see and what’s happening beneath the surface- both in the natural world and the political one. When it comes to the alliance displayed among China, Russia, and North Korea, I’m wary of overestimating the strength of their friendship. I’m...

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Forged in Friction

I’m pleased to share another week of analysis with you in my 3+1 Weekly Risk Report. I also invite you to take a look at my op-ed which ran yesterday in USA Today. The drug cartel threat is a mounting national security concern. But we must partner with Mexico to prosecute the drug war in...

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Converging Contests

The US-Iran conflict is now seeing the risk of escalation extending beyond direct exchanges between Washington and Tehran. While both sides appear to be calibrating their own strikes to avoid a return to full-scale conflict, peripheral actors—including the Houthis and Iran-aligned groups in Iraq—are expanding the geographic scope of the conflict. Regional governments face growing...
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Breaking the Balance

With military confrontation back in full force this week, Washington and Tehran are headed toward another collision course resembling the peak of hostilities last spring. The June framework has eroded and been replaced by a familiar resumption of kinetic attacks, primarily targeting the Iranian coastline of the Strait of Hormuz, as both the US and...
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Closure Without Clarity

The agreed upon Memorandum of Understanding coming out of the latest US-Iran negotiations is a validation of progress, but each signatory will interpret its requisite obligations in a way that advances its national interest. This will impact the speed and nature of the deal’s implementation and even threaten its ultimate viability....
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Deals and Detours

The agreement Washington and Tehran signed electronically this week is being characterized as the end of the war, but that assessment is likely an overstatement. The document is a sixty-day interim memorandum which gives both sides a way to pause the fighting, but structural disagreements remain which could derail the diplomatic track....
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Stuck in the Middle

The Middle East is erupting again this week, with kinetic attacks ranging from Iranian missiles launched at Israel to US strikes on petrochemical plants in Iran—but the military escalation is likely aimed to prompt a quicker diplomatic solution, not derail one. Neither side wants to continue full-scale fighting, but if Iran remains firm in its...
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Agreeing to Disagree

Washington and Tehran both want a deal, but not the same one. For the White House, the priority is reducing tensions in the Gulf, securing freedom of navigation through Hormuz, and preserving space for a longer diplomatic process on the nuclear issue. Iran, by contrast, appears to be seeking an arrangement that demonstrates the limits...
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