Stuck in the Middle
The Middle East is erupting again this week, with kinetic attacks ranging from Iranian missiles launched at Israel to US strikes on petrochemical plants in Iran—but the military escalation is likely aimed to prompt a quicker diplomatic solution, not derail one. Neither side wants to continue full-scale fighting, but if Iran remains firm in its demands to control the Strait of Hormuz and refuses to negotiate on the nuclear issue, it will be difficult for Washington to back down, and we can expect lower-level violence to continue—if not expand.
Agreeing to Disagree
Washington and Tehran both want a deal, but not the same one. For the White House, the priority is reducing tensions in the Gulf, securing freedom of navigation through Hormuz, and preserving space for a longer diplomatic process on the nuclear issue. Iran, by contrast, appears to be seeking an arrangement that demonstrates the limits of American coercion while preserving the strategic assets and sources of leverage it regards as untouchable.
Managing The Edge
Washington and Tehran are edging toward an agreement neither side fully trusts, and neither side can afford to abandon. Reports that a draft framework had been largely negotiated briefly sent oil prices tumbling this week on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could stabilize and sanctions relief might follow. But on the same day, US strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure and maritime assets—in retaliation for an Iranian strike on a US drone—pushed markets in the opposite direction and underscored that the situation is still volatile and an offramp from the standoff remains elusive.
Summits and Stalemates
Less than a week after President Trump’s departure from Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in China in a summit that will inevitably be viewed through the lens of Washington’s recent diplomatic engagement with President Xi. Officially, the meeting is about strengthening the Sino-Russian relationship—something Beijing insists is not mutually exclusive to a stable and beneficial relationship with the US.
Linked Leverage
The conflict between Iran and Washington has evolved into a fight between Iranian resilience and US patience, and so far Tehran appears confident that the impasse will ultimately work in its favor. Iran knows that President Trump is hesitant to resume kinetic attacks—both because of the risk it this poses to American lives and the potential inability to achieve his goals through military means—but that he’s also eager to get the Strait of Hormuz back up and running and needs to move the needle. With this dynamic at play, Iran appears to believe that it can get greater concessions out of Washington than it had initially hoped.
Shifting Red Lines
The ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has devolved into a high-stakes game of chicken rather than a path to a diplomatic resolution. Iran is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite the US blockade, and Washington is probing how far it can push back without triggering a full-scale conflict.
Successful Compromise
Dear Friends, As the new year approaches, I’m struck by how nations are carefully balancing their economic needs with their political ones, and the compromises they’re making in the process. Whether the US should allow semiconductor chips to be sent to China or if Israel should send gas to Egypt are the types of decisions […]
Seizing Opportunity
There was a major escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against the Venezuelan regime this week when the US military seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper off the coast of Venezuela on the very same day that the Nobel Peace Prize was being awarded to Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader. The Trump administration has been […]
Conflicting Accounts
Dear Friends, The kinetic wars of the past several years have sparked an urgent need for increased diplomacy and military defenses alike. We’re seeing both at play right now in Eastern Europe, where Washington is trying to advance ceasefire negotiations while developments on the physical battlefield might be the ultimate decider. We discuss this […]
Slowly, then All at Once
Dear Friends, New security developments—which appear to spring up overnight—are often underpinned by growing tensions. Twin terrorist attacks within 24 hours in South Asia. Coalition governments teetering on the brink in places like Israel. Military buildups accelerating among two former WWII Axis powers. Mass protests materializing quickly in Mexico. For those of us who […]
