Beijing has announced plans to implement new national security legislation in Hong Kong that would expand its powers to break up large gatherings – like protests – a significant move in China’s push to bring Hong Kong fully under mainland authority. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called it a “death knell” for the partial...

President Trump has amped up anti-Chinese rhetoric over the past week, floating several potential measures to punish China for the coronavirus pandemic, including demands for reparations, scuttling the trade deal, and forcibly delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock indices. Any of these steps would represent the extreme end of the foreign policy spectrum, and none...

The European Commission forecasts a 7.4% drop in economic growth this year, which would mark the worst contraction for the continent since World War II, dwarfing the 4.5% contraction of the 2009 recession. And the EC has warned that its forecast may underestimate this year’s actual drop in GDP. Italy, Spain, and Greece are expected...

China has scheduled its delayed National Party Congress meeting for May 22, signaling confidence that Covid-19 is sufficiently contained and setting the stage to announce post-pandemic stimulus measures and this year’s economic growth target. China is likely to take aggressive measures to juice its economy, which is positive news for the U.S. economy, especially for...

Oil prices in the U.S. turned negative this week, signaling the depth of the demand shock caused by the Great Lockdown. While prices ticked up again yesterday, partly on news that raised the risk of U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East (see below), there remains a real possibility that prices will go negative again as...