The streets of Midtown East came alive with diplomacy this week, as global leaders convened for the 81st UN General Assembly (UNGA) and New Yorkers grumbled at the additional road closures. But underpinning discussions of peace and security is the cold hard fact that much of the world is either currently at war, or feeling the ramifications of these wars, and that there’s no quick fix here. Worse, the threat of expanded conflicts in new arenas—both geographical and technological—looms large in the background, and it’s unclear how and if any international organization has the capacity to stop them.
As the UNGA President reiterated in his opening remarks, while the UN has helped to prevent a third World War, it must work harder to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” This much is apparent. Even while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was delivering his speech at UNGA, the Russians were simultaneously attacking his headquarters in Kyiv. When Iranian President Pezeshkian took the stage, he spoke against military might and terrorism while his country was busy attacking ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Leaders are openly advocating for dialogue and diplomacy, but large-scale war is back on the table.
While the UN, then, might not succeed directly in its current mission to regain trust and play a more constructive role in ending global conflicts, the UNGA gathering itself still offers an opportunity for leaders to chat on the sidelines or hold additional high-level discussions. And that’s where some of the real action can happen. Further afield, the Washington summit being held this week between President Xi and President Trump will no doubt address the topic of war—both present and future–and the outcome of this discussion will mean as much or more than any UN declaration.
For the past several years, China has been instrumental in perpetuating the current wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. China has kept Russia’s economy afloat through purchasing discounted Russian oil and gas, but it’s also supplied Russia with the kind of dual-use technology that’s allowed the Kremlin to pursue its attacks on Ukraine at a steady pace. Likewise, Iran has received dual-use components from China that have allowed it to effectively rearm amid Western and economic restrictions, and Iran’s dire economy has also been supported by China’s not-so-hidden hand over Iranian oil.
At the summit, then, Xi will likely use these points as leverage for his greater goal—to succeed at a war that he’s been preparing for closer to his own neighborhood. And unlike the UN Security Council, China has something it can trade to secure its political ambitions. President Xi will be looking for a way to limit Washington’s support of Taiwan and in exchange it could offer to wield its economic influence over Russia and Iran to offer a path forward in Eastern Europe or the Middle East.
Whether Trump and Xi make a deal of this nature will be instructive as to the future of both wars, but there’s a catch. Even if Xi and Trump elect to collaborate to calm Russia and Iran, there’s another interrelated competition running parallel in the background–the US-China race to AI dominance. With AI set to play such a dominant role in both national security and the global economy, it’s been a major point of discussion at this year’s UNGA and at the summit in Washington. And as the future of warfare and AI are now inextricably interwoven, no one is quite sure how to handle the new paradigm.
With so much at stake, a side deal on AI is increasingly unlikely, and–like with global nuclear safety collaboration–the role of the international organization could therefore take on a new light. But with trust between nations seemingly at an all-time low, and faith in international organizations not far behind, it’s hard to imagine any agreement that adequately addresses our next real global security challenge. In the meantime, we can expect that China is taking every lesson it can from its live AI test cases in Iran and Ukraine, and that Washington will fight at all costs to maintain its technological lead.
