Conflicts, Controversy, and Corruption,
Tehran is sustaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to keep energy prices elevated while deliberately keeping the conflict below the threshold of full-scale war. Iranian hardliners see rising US inflation and the Fed’s recent rate hike as evidence that their strategy is increasing pressure on Washington, but Iran’s growing economic isolation—including tighter Turkish trade controls and Pakistan’s border closure—could make the stalemate difficult to sustain.
Beijing is also introducing a new layer to the confrontation, with Tehran concerned that China could use its leverage over Iranian oil purchases to pressure a reopening of Hormuz in exchange for Washington walking back a proposed $14 billion arms package to Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the Houthis have privately assured both the US and Israel that their vessels will be spared in the Bab el-Mandeb—provided neither joins Saudi Arabia’s efforts to retaliate after a series of crippling Houthi strikes on key Saudi targets.
