In Other News – Putin Doubles Down Despite Ukrainian Wins – 9/28/2022

September 28, 2022

Vladimir Putin is under pressure but he’s also doubling down. After a major Ukrainian counter-offensive prompted him to order a partial mobilization of troops in Russia, the spectacle of the exodus of countless military fighting-age men from Russia’s borders, visible from space, is its own special humiliation. The world is debating whether Putin is leaving his borders open to add additional pressure to the refugee tensions in Europe or if he simply lacks the forces to close Russia’s vast border. Despite the optics, there are plenty of men of fighting age still in Russia and Putin plans to send tens of thousands of them into Ukraine. Putin also is cobbling together his own legal justification for an escalation in war with his sham referendums in four partially Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. The return of highly controlled results in favor of joining the Russian Federation will be officialized tomorrow in a signing ceremony in Moscow, which is essentially an annexation of these territories. Putin will then use any Ukrainian defense of these regions as a purported attack on sovereign Russian territory. Still there is much skepticism that these mobilization efforts and annexation can do much to address the systemic and structural failings of Russia’s military invasion that have led Moscow to this crucible, especially as reports of under-equipped and under-trained new conscripts continuously emerge. Also, Putin now has to contend with a growing and more vocal domestic discontent than before, evidenced by his concession earlier today that there were mistakes made in carrying out his draft and the head of the Duma calling for the closing of Russia’s borders.

Despite the Ukrainian gains in recent weeks and the emergent prospect that Ukraine could in fact win the war, Putin’s actions are a reminder that the war is not over. Not at all. In fact, pressures of Kyiv are growing with the winter approaching. Kyiv is currently running a $5-6 billion account deficit every month to keep Ukraine functioning on a very basic level. European aid has been committed but has been slow to arrive. Even the newly announced military $1.1 billion aid package from the U.S. will fund 18 HIMARS slated to arrive in two years. And despite the Ukrainian people’s resilience, the war is taking an enormous daily toll on its people with many without jobs and with limited food and housing heading into winter. Russia’s initial response to its recent setbacks is to attack key Ukrainian infrastructure including power plants and hydropower plants. This strategic onslaught could continue as an enduring strategy. Still, Ukraine’s impressive counteroffensive ahead of the winter should give its resistance more fighting power figuratively and literally as allies believe more and more that it is a good investment to help Ukraine defend itself.

The more the U.S. and European leaders can tie the success of the Ukraine war to their own security the better. The West’s support for Ukraine remains strong but with the new governments in Sweden and Italy, there will be new pressures and divisions to overcome in order to maintain the sustained support required for Ukraine to prevail. Also, the coming winter will put the greatest pressure on European governments thus far regarding its support of Ukraine, with rising energy prices, the prospect of potential shortages, and all of this amid several economic headwinds in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion. While the four leaks in Nordstream1 and 2 will unlikely add to the pressures in Europe because the lines were not currently delivering gas to Europe, the fact that it is suspected that Russian sabotage targeted these gas lines underscores that we have entered a more aggressive and dangerous phase of Russia’s growing confrontation with the West.

In Other News – Defeat on the Battlefield Has Brought the War Home to Russia – 9/22/2022

September 22, 2022

Defeat on the battlefield has brought the war home to Russia. The recent Ukrainian counterattack against the Russians dramatically reduced Moscow’s hold of the Kharkiv region and laid bare both the Russian military’s weaknesses and human rights abuses. No longer able to deny Russia’s military struggles, and with an increasing PR problem underway, on Wednesday Putin declared a “partial mobilization” of national reservists. The announcement is a significant elevation of the war and quickly set off a spark of activity within Russia: long lines formed at the Finnish, Mongolian and Georgian borders, flight prices to exit the country skyrocketed, and thousands of Russians took to the streets in protest. Although the Kremlin has assured its populace that the mobilization is limited to 300,000 reservists, other reports highlighted a section of the decree that wasn’t available to the public and would allow armed forces to draft up to a million military personnel.

The decree appears purposefully vague and the “partial mobilization”- a process that hasn’t happened in Russia since World War II and only a handful of times in history before that – is already being met with skepticism, confusion, and fear. It’s likely that the federal authorities will pin the responsibility on local leaders to work out the details, as they did with Covid measures. But this leaves room for discrepancy, and unverified social media reports indicate that individuals who aren’t in the reserves, including some recently arrested for anti-war protest activity, are already receiving mobilization orders. Further, on September 20, Russia’s State Duma passed new legislation that upped the penalties for “crimes against military service”, seemingly in anticipation of more widespread protests.

Indeed, the motivation and preparedness level of the new Russian troops- and of those currently serving whose short-term contracts have been indefinitely extended, is questionable. While Russia has an estimated two million reservists or more, including some with previous military experience, only a small percentage of these are battle-ready. It’s also uncertain if the newly mobilized soldiers will be willing to fight with any conviction. In some minority regions of Russia, like Dagestan, which already lost a disproportionate number of men during the initial stages of the war, protests are sparking, and some residents even reportedly barricaded the federal highway to protest the mobilization effort.

The Dagestani protestors, and others throughout the nation, assert that the war isn’t about protecting the Russian homeland but about protecting Putin’s political stature. While questions abound on the specifics of the “partial mobilization” and its efficacy, it’s a clear admission that Putin isn’t happy with the state of war effort. And just as he’s under pressure from his own hardliner contingent, Putin’s political allies, like the leaders of India and China, have started to hint at their discontent with the conflict. This week even Turkish President Erdogan, who was instrumental in mediating the recent Russian-Ukrainian prisoner swap largely in Ukraine’s favor, publicly urged Putin to return the occupied territories back to Ukraine.

However, as of now, Putin does not seem deterred by the emerging criticism. Instead, he’s fully evolved the official narrative from one of “liberating” Ukrainians from neo-Nazis, to “protecting” the Russian state against NATO’s aggression. Putin’s also moving forward on sham “referendums” slated to begin on Friday in Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Further, under increasing domestic and international pressure, Putin’s resumed his psychological ploy of nuclear saber-rattling. But until he’s facing the prospect of an all-out defeat in Ukraine, and we’re still far from that threshold, it’s unlikely that he’d resort to such extreme measures.

In Other News – Putin Struggles on the Domestic and International Fronts – 9/15/2022

September 15, 2022

Indications of struggle for Putin on the domestic and international fronts. Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive in the northeast Kharkiv region put Russia on the defensive and forced a retreat that has attracted international attention. Moscow termed the retreat “a regrouping”, but after the loss even Putin’s allies like Chechen leader Kadyrov took to social media and criticized the Russian military’s performance, insinuating that Putin wasn’t fully aware of the mistakes that were being made on the battlefield. Other Putin supporters, like the pro-war Russian hardliners, also expressed frustration with the battlefield status and called for Moscow to double-down via attacks on civilian targets and infrastructure, and to initiate an aggressive conscription campaign.

Putin, like the hardliners, would love to double down on his Ukraine attack, but he’s facing significant challenges. What he really needs is manpower, but he doesn’t want to risk losing favor with his own population. For several months, Putin has been discretely relying on financial incentives to recruit Russian soldiers and he’s also hired private military fighters- not only to gain bodies, but to avoid direct blame for any human rights abuses perpetrated by deployed soldiers. Just this week it was leaked that Russia’s shadow mercenary Wagner Group has been attempting to recruit Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, another indication that Putin is trying hard to avoid forcing all eligible citizens to enlist.

Indeed, thus far many Russians have been able to distance themselves mentally and physically from the battlefield, but a mandatory draft would drive the conflict home and could spark a broader opposition. The patriotism required to back the Kremlin in an increased offensive endeavor isn’t apparent, and with each military set-back it decreases. Further, after the losses in Kharkiv, opposition deputies in over 30 municipalities reportedly called for Putin’s resignation in a rare symbolic showing of discontent – notable even if the dissenters were not eligible for another term. It’s also likely that internal dissent will continue to grow as the effect of sanctions sets-in over the coming months.

Putin, unable to achieve the quick victory he initially anticipated, is now left with the choice of cutting a deal, grinding-on, or elevating the conflict. But just as he risks losing the support of his population with a mandatory service requirement, if Putin tries to greatly elevate the war, he risks problematic relations with some of his critical allies like China and India. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization this week, Putin and Chinese President Xi reportedly reaffirmed their commitment to collaborating on their respective “core interests”, yet Putin also publicly acknowledged that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine. Indeed, it needs to be in China’s continued interest to support Moscow, and this isn’t a straightforward equation.

In addition to complicating his status with major allies like China and India, the war is shifting Putin’s role in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and in conflict zones like Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria. Where before, Putin was able to devote substantial attention to playing statesman and orchestrating side-agreements, his presence has been largely absent in many of these conflict zones. And if his status in such areas is weakened, it will limit Putin’s bargaining power on other fronts. Further, Putin doesn’t seem to have a clear strategy and he’s scrambling for political and economic opportunities, as evidenced by his recent outreach to both Saudi Arabia and Iran. The paradox is that these nations are also watching him, waiting to see how they might exploit Russia by purchasing cheap energy while Putin is most vulnerable, and simultaneously looking for economic stability elsewhere.

In Other News – Authoritarian Leaders Alliances Complicated by Effects of Globalization – 9/8/2022

September 8, 2022

Authoritarian leaders are attempting to strengthen their alliances, but their efforts will be complicated by the lingering effects of globalization. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, we have been living in an era marked by increased global links between people and companies, where state-level leadership has at times felt secondary to the power of cross-border, private relationships. Over these years, widespread internet access has allowed individuals to connect, communicate and collaborate in an unprecedented way, serving to advance business and trade relations. Simultaneously, the internet also led to a new type of security threat marked by borderless, ideological alliances. Indeed, individuals like ISIS affiliates, empowered by a global support network of ideas or funding, became a high-level national security threat, while the threat posed by many state-level actors retreated to the background.

But when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, state-level efforts and alliances again soared to the forefront. NATO and allies, in contrast to the Afghanistan withdrawal last year, came together in a powerful way around their shared democratic mission. At the same time, Putin has made a concerted effort to recruit authoritarian state leaders as allies, most visibly China’s President Xi, but also the leaders of Serbia, Belarus, Hungary, and Turkey, among others, with mixed results. When hit with sanctions, Russia has looked to these friendly nations for economic relief and relations. Likewise, Ukraine has looked to its allies for continued economic and military aid, and this support has contributed to Ukraine’s military successes, including its recent counteroffensive efforts.

Indeed, the future of Ukraine’s effort will depend on the commitment of its allies. This week, US Defense Secretary Austin remarked that Kyiv’s allies need to sustain Ukraine’s fighters “for the long haul”, announcing $675m more in US military aid that includes heavy weapons. On top of that, US Secretary of State Blinken announced $2bn for Ukraine and other European countries threatened by Russia. While the United States and other Western nations and allies continue to demonstrate their support for Ukraine, even in an increasingly challenging environment due to global economic conditions, Russia is trying to double down on its partnerships.

Next week Putin plans to meet with President Xi on what will be Xi’s first major trip abroad since the pandemic. In addition to visiting other Central Asian nations, Xi will travel to Uzbekistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s meeting scheduled for September 15-16. It will be a time for multiple authoritarian leaders to convene, and for Putin to reinforce his anti-Western narrative on the Ukraine invasion. But China, that plays a key role in Russia’s economic future, is significantly intertwined with the West. Notably, while US-China trade tensions are currently high, China-EU relations have long been defined as separate from direct geographical conflicts, making space for trade despite political upheaval. Further, both Russia and China still depend on access to technologies produced in the West, and this economic interdependency isn’t going to be easily displaced.

It’s clear that Putin is still threatened by what’s been set into motion over the past twenty or thirty years. Earlier this week, Putin remarked that “modern development can only be based on sovereignty”, implying that the state, not the world, will dictate economic success. He’s trying to capitalize on the worldwide ascent of populist and authoritarian leaders championing a nationalist agenda, and he’ll likely achieve some degree of success. Indeed, this increasing alliance of global authoritarian leaders will necessitate a shift in the focus of the intelligence community to state-level actors and will impact the ability of international organizations to help navigate, or supersede, inter-state conflicts.

But we also aren’t in an era of simple state-level competition. There’s already such a high degree of economic interdependence, and global issues like the pandemic and climate change will serve to encourage collaboration beyond borders. Further, for every step towards attempted authoritarian domination, there are also countermeasures. Internet access, for example, is being increasingly restricted by authoritarian leaders, but developments to circumvent the restrictions and use technology to validate unjust state actions is everywhere apparent. Indeed, while the era of globalization might be waning, the process has made the world a more nuanced place, and this will influence national strategies moving forward.

In Other News – A View from Abroad – 9/1/2022

September 1, 2022

A View from Abroad
The first week of every month, In Other News will now feature a short op-ed heavily informed by the European perspective. We hope that these special monthly pieces will offer our readers an enriched understanding of global events and allow for a more robust international risk calculus.

Myriad challenges await the next UK Prime Minister, who will need to shape what Brexit looks like moving forward. On September 5, the prolonged Conservative Party leadership contest in London will conclude, and the next UK Prime Minister will be declared. On his way out, Boris Johnson hailed a victory for Brexit, but the new leader, likely to be current Minister of Foreign Affairs Liz Truss, will be welcomed by wide-ranging political and economic challenges that are being amplified by some of the Brexit policies. In particular, the issue of Northern Ireland will need to be effectively resolved for the UK to resume good relations with the EU. While long term political prospects for the Conservatives are uncertain, and another round of elections are required within 28 months, the UK’s economic security will be pinnacle to the next leader’s success.

Several years after Brexit, the UK has yet to implement effective import controls, and EU companies have easier access to the UK market than British companies to the EU. Small and medium UK enterprises are suffering from an enormous amount of red tape, and British exports and economic growth have stagnated. Further, in addition to serious global challenges like sharp inflation, rising interest rates, high consumer energy costs, supply chain disruptions, unstable exchange rates, personnel shortages, climate change, migration, steeply rising house prices and other knock-on effects of the Ukraine-Russia war, the situation in Northern Ireland is unique and it’s hindering opportunities for UK prosperity.

According to the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol under Brexit, Northern Ireland is granted access to both the British and EU markets, with corresponding export and import controls. But the British government has attributed problems in Northern Ireland to the agreement, and implementation of the Protocol remains politically fraught. Political standstill in Belfast is the result. The EU and the UK have tried to negotiate the issue, but with no success. A new phase in scientific corporation in the Horizon program has been put on hold and agreements in the financial and data-protection sectors are also stalled.

Further, both the UK and EU have accused each other of breaking earlier commitments, and it’s turned into a heated legal battle. The EU hopes that Washington will put pressure on London to help resolve the issue, but the UK government hopes the United States will refrain from doing so. This challenge awaits the new Prime Minister, but it also provides a chance to reestablish good relations moving forward.

Indeed, as the future of the Conservative party in the UK remains undetermined, and another round of elections will occur in just over two years, it’s likely that the new Prime Minister will move closer to the political center. Liz Truss, who was originally a Liberal Democrat and initially on the fence about Brexit, could be flexible enough to navigate the new political reality, but it remains to be seen if she can win in general elections against a newly invigorated Labor leadership that’s aiming for a united front with the Liberal Democrats. Regardless of who takes the helm, however, the next Prime Minister will be met with great demands and the critical opportunity to define what Brexit looks like in practice over the coming months.

In Other News – How the World Has Changed in the 6 Months Since Russia Invaded the Ukrained – 8/25/2022

August 25, 2022

How the World has Changed in the six months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. The strategic positioning of Ukraine has evolved from a seemingly indefensible target, to admirable resistor in the first months of the assault, to besieged victim of a long war in the East and South, to a clever asymmetrical opponent with its focus on retaking portions of Kherson and targeting strategic military installations in Crimea, to potentially a successful defender. But in this short time period, the geostrategic landscape of Europe and the West has also changed. An expanding NATO and other Western allies are sharply focused and galvanized regarding the security threat that Russia poses and other territorially aggressive autocratic states. The required shift from Russian energy sources, and carbon-based fuels more generally, is now more acutely understood and the irreversible divestment from Russia has taken on a new urgency. Widespread sanctions are having a punishing effect on the Russian economy and there is unease among Russia’s elite.

As Ukraine celebrates its flag day and 31 years of independence, the region is on tenterhooks, as most pertinently illustrated by the drama and instability at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, but also with the credible prospect of Russian targeted assaults to pointedly punish Ukraine for the audacity of asserting independence. On the battlefield though, much is stalemated, and both sides are preparing for a long cold winter in the trenches. Europe is frantically stockpiling fuel, and pundits are speculating on whether a tough winter and a series of elections could weaken Western resolve (the likely posture of the new Italian government is the first sign of this). Still, thanks in large part to Turkey, Ukrainian grain is flowing from its ports, and there is hope that the U.N. might be able to intervene to diminish tensions and shelling in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine, with its previously underestimated intelligence capabilities, new Western armaments and training, and recent strategic strikes behind enemy lines, is taking a real initiative to perhaps change the dynamic even before the winter sets in. As Autumn approaches, there may be more in store in the coming weeks than is presently apparent.

The downstream effects of the war continues to reverberate across the world, whether it be Russia seeking to use Iran as an exporter as a means to circumvent sanctions, the successful, if controversial, outreach by the US to increase Saudi oil production, the boon for UAE as sanctioned Oligarchs flock to its ports, the specific attention paid to Taiwan and the presence of American politicians on the island, or heightened tension on the Kosovo-Serbia border. Although Turkey’s tenuous position as chief negotiator in the conflict is now in question following its diplomatic spat with Russia over Ankara’s ambitions in northern Syria. In many respects, the war in Ukraine is an inflection point that has prompted or accelerated profound realignments, even as the war’s outcome remains uncertain.

In Other News – Turkey Navigates and Shapes a New Geopolitical Order – 8/18/2022

August 18, 2022

As the war in Ukraine continues, Turkey is both navigating, and shaping, a new geopolitical order. Earlier today, UN Secretary General Guterres and Turkish President Erdogan met in western Ukraine with President Zelenskyy to discuss the ongoing economic and security impact of the war. It will be Erdogan’s first visit to Ukraine since February, and he’ll be looking for ways to increase and secure Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports after initial agreements were signed in Istanbul in late July. Erdogan, who previously met with Putin in southern Russia on the same issues, is in a unique position to serve as a regional broker. Notably, about one year ago we saw how Turkey was also vying to play mediator in Kabul, and although Qatar was ultimately better positioned for the role, Turkey has since maintained global relevance as the only NATO member with a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan.

Turkey is now drawing upon this experience to calibrate its relationships with NATO, Russia, and associated allies. These relationships are often quite transactional, and Erdogan likely assumes that by making himself an indispensable go-between in Ukraine he might gain greater leeway to purchase Russian military equipment without sanctions and to act on his own accord in Syria. So far, Erdogan is doing a decent job of the balancing act, trying to appease the West by acting as a mediator and equipping Ukraine’s army with drones, while simultaneously expanding trade with Russia. But it’s a difficult position to maintain, and his diplomatic policies will be heavily informed by domestic concerns.

Indeed, while Erdogan is guided by numerous priorities, including limiting refugees and upholding his role as a global statesman, he’s really trying to pump up the Turkish economy before next year’s elections. Just today, in a move derided by many financial analysts, Turkey’s central bank surprisingly cut the benchmark rate despite soaring inflation. Since 2021, Turkey has been suffering from an ongoing currency crisis that’s led to financial instability, and Ankara has recently looked to Russia for economic relief. There’s been an uptick in Turkish-Russian trade since February, and five Turkish banks are even reportedly adopting Russia’s Mir payments system. European countries also recognize Turkey’s role as an export base for sending non-sanctioned goods to Russia, a position that forces Ankara to balance potential economic gain with the risk of facilitating sanctions evasion.

But Turkey isn’t limiting its economic outreach to Russia. In the past few months Erdogan has made overtures to Saudi and the UAE, and this week Ankara reestablished critical diplomatic relations with Israel for the first time in four years. Both Tel Aviv and Ankara expressed a mutual desire to increase economic ties, but they likely also recognize the strength in unity as states in proximity to Russia or Russian forces. And while international attention has been understandably focused on Putin’s deepening relationship with China, Turkey is also looking further east and is reportedly pursuing closer relations with Beijing and regional alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Indeed, Turkey’s relationship with China has been evolving over the past several years and could serve to offer both Beijing and Ankara leverage on the global stage regardless of what happens next in Ukraine.

In Other News – Explosions in Crimea Shake Russia’s Confidence – 8/11/2022

August 11, 2022

Explosions in annexed Crimea shake Russia’s confidence, hint at a broader Ukrainian counteroffensive. Satellite imagery from earlier this week revealed that multiple Russian warplanes stationed at the Saki airbase in Crimea were damaged or destroyed on Tuesday. Moscow is still trying to get its story straight on what happened– the Russian defense ministry claimed that the airbase explosions were caused by detonated aviation ammunition, while state propagandists furiously spouted-off that Russians are under attack by Ukraine. Kyiv has not officially claimed responsibility for the destruction of the Russian planes, but a senior Ukrainian Ministry of Defense official confirmed Kyiv’s role in the attack to the media and further indicated that more operations of a similar nature are in the works. President Zelenskyy also publicly and emphatically restated the goal of liberating Crimea from Russian control.

If Ukraine was indeed responsible for the explosions, which took place at a notable distance from Ukrainian lines, the attack would be the first significant attack in Crimea since the onset of the war. It would also mark the single biggest day of Russian air force losses since February. Based on the range of the attacks, there’s active speculation about the nature of the attack, be it the use of advanced weaponry or the handiwork of Ukrainian special forces. Regardless of the specific mechanism, if Crimea is now deemed as susceptible to attack, Russia will need to reallocate resources to protect its forces in the area and might have to pull from its frontlines. It also might choose to move planes out of the area to less desirable air bases farther away.

Further, in addition to causing logistical woes for Moscow, the explosions likely jolted any sense of security held by Russian air force members. Social media images depicting Russians who were vacationing in Crimea scrambling to avoid the explosions could also have a psychological impact on the Russian populace. Adding to the uncertainty, this week there were also unconfirmed social media reports regarding explosions at a Belarusian military airbase used by Moscow and close to the Ukrainian border. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus dismissed the reports and said that a car engine had caught fire at the location, but Zelenskyy’s advisor remarked that Russians shouldn’t feel safe in either Crimea or occupied Belarus, noting that these so-called technical incidents should serve as a warning.

For its part, Ukraine has pledged to force Russian troops out of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the coming weeks via an increased counteroffensive. Already, Ukrainian forces are targeting military bases and ammunition hubs around Kherson and in the wider Kherson province, including a possible attack on a strategic road and rail link earlier this week. It’s still uncertain if these attacks will allow Ukraine to make any territorial advances in the region, but time is certainly of the essence. Ukrainian officials have remarked that the longer Ukrainians are stuck under Russian occupation, the greater the risk of losing them, and officials further believe that Russia will try to hold illegal referendums in the captured areas in early September.

In Other News – Yemen Truce, Ukraine Grain Shipment and Counteroffensives – 8/4/2022

August 4, 2022

Yemen Truce Extended

The Yemeni government and Houthi rebels agreed to another two-month extension of a truce first agreed upon in April and extended in June. This series of deals has been the first significant cessation in the seven-year conflict that has killed more than 150,000 people and has displaced millions.

The original truce called on the groups to halt military operations as well as allow fuel shipments into the country’s main Red Sea port controlled by the Houthis, provide weekly commercial flights to and from Yemen’s primary international airport, and further talks on opening roads to the government-controlled areas such as Taiz and other cities. The new truce extension includes commitments by both parties to intensify negotiations on reaching an expanded agreement. Experts suggest that cross pressure on all parties has helped create the environment for the truce. Iran, seeking to resurrect a deal with the U.S. on its nuclear ambitions, has pushed its Houthi allies to the bargaining table while the anti-Houthi coalition has seen its leader, Saudi Arabia, suggest that it wants to exit the conflict.

Despite the progress, all sides have advised caution on the idea that this would lead to a permanent peace. While the general parameters of the truce have held, outside monitors counted more than 1,800 violations including shelling and drone strikes since April. Analysts note that the Houthi’s have continued to recruit during the cease-fire and are prepared to continue military operations should it fail. Houthi forces have also been slow in opening roads to the besieged city of Taiz. Factions within the coalition are themselves divided over whether south Yemen, their current power base, should secede entirely. While the deal has allowed relief for some of the Yemeni population, significant progress is still needed on a comprehensive political settlement. Success will require continued attention to problems affecting the Yemeni people while also creating a structure for long term agreement.

First Ukrainian Grain Shipment

The first Ukrainian shipment of grain since the Russian invasion has proceeded under a deal to resume the country’s agricultural exports. The deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, may provide some relief for global food shortages and subsequent price surges while also benefitting Ukraine’s beleaguered economy.

The vessel, carrying 26,000 tons of Ukrainian corn, left Odessa on Monday and sailed to Turkey where it was inspected by officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.N. The July 22nd agreement, which is initially set to last 120 days, allows Ukraine to resume grain exports which could provide at least $1 billion in revenue. In the last seven years, the country has averaged more than 40 million tons of grain exports annually. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine’s agricultural exports in 2021 “totaled $27.8 billion accounting for 41 percent of the country’s $68 billion in overall exports.” Ukraine reportedly has 17 more vessels, which had been loaded prior to the invasion, ready to follow.

Questions remain about how much of its harvest Ukraine will be able to successfully export. Prior to the invasion, the country could export 6 million tons of grain per month. Under the current agreement, Ukraine can send three shipments per day, but to reach the previous level, the country would need each of those vessels to carry 60,000 tons or more than two times the initial shipment. The U.S. Institute of Peace noted that the current rate of transport is insufficient for the 20 million tons of grain the country has ready for export. Still, any increased supply to the global market will help the millions of people facing hunger, including Syrian refugees in Lebanon where the first shipment will arrive.

Counteroffensive in Southern Ukraine

Movements by Ukrainian and Russian forces suggests an imminent collision of forces in southern Ukraine. Russia appears to be amassing units near the city of Kherson where Ukraine’s counteroffensives, empowered with new weapons from Western allies, have recaptured territory and threaten Russia’s hold on southeastern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s efforts in the region of Kherson, a provincial capital and a strategically important city, have yielded steady success, moving closer to retaking the city itself. Ukraine’s access to long range artillery, in the form of High Mobility Artillery Rock Systems, has given it the ability to hit Russian ammunition deports and command posts, depleting Russian forces and pushing supply lines further from the front. Ukraine has successfully used artillery to destroy bridges and railways that Russia needs to supply its forces in Kherson. Control of Kherson would allow Ukraine to push Russia back across the Dnipro River, which splits the country in two.

Recapturing Kherson and the surrounding region could be a turning point for Ukraine. While it holds symbolic value as the first major city to fall in the invasion, Kherson also provides significant strategic benefit. Ukrainian control of Kherson would deny Russia its long-held goal of a land bridge to Crimea while simultaneously cutting off Crimea from needed power plants and water reservoirs. Ukraine would also regain access to significant agricultural and industrial resources in the region. Holding Kherson would also allow Ukraine to more easily defend the port of Odessa, where grain shipments have recently resumed. As an added benefit, Ukrainian control of Kherson also carries an implicit threat to Russian-held Crimea. “The threat of the transfer of the war to the territory of Crimea is already becoming a reality for them,” a Ukrainian military official said Monday.

In Other News – The Importance of Continuing Western Support for Ukraine – 7/28/2022

July 28, 2022

The effectiveness of high-precision weapons for Ukraine has shown the importance of continuing Western support to the war effort against Russian aggression. In the ongoing battle between Ukraine and Russia, American-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (“HIMARS”) are proving to be a game changer given the significance of precision weaponry on the urban battlefield. Honed during years of fighting in Iraq, HIMARS are designed for precision strikes in urban environments. Since their introduction in Ukraine, their range and accuracy have forced the Russian military to move ammunition and supply depots further from the fighting, resulting in logistical issues. HIMARS were reportedly used last week to strategically target a key bridge in southern Ukraine’s occupied Kherson to prevent the Russian military from using that bridge to resupply increasingly isolated troops and to move additional troops into the area to meet Ukraine’s counter-offensive. While Ukraine has relatively few HIMARS, these small, mobile, and accurate missile systems have proven to be effective and are changing the war on the ground as, so far, Russia does not appear to have an answer for them. Other Eastern European countries have taken notice, and Poland, Latvia and Estonia are actively looking to buy hundreds of HIMARS to bolster their own defenses; Lithuania is also expected to make a request.

In addition to launch systems, drones – particularly the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2, but also Phoenix Ghost tactical unmanned aircraft systems from the United States – are playing a significant role in Ukraine’s defense. Drones showed their myriad value early on, providing an outgunned Ukrainian military valuable intelligence on Russian positions, enabling them to target their more limited resources more effectively. In support of Ukraine’s war effort, global citizens have organized “dronations” to donate commercial weapons to Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, Putin wants more drones as well and is reported to have recently requested a supply from Iran. He also suggested to Turkish President Erdogan that they build a Baykar drone factory in Russia. The CEO of Baykar has stated that the company supports Ukrainian sovereignty and would never support Russia. When he heard of the dronations, the Turkish drone maker offered to supply Ukraine drones for free and asked that the money raised be spent on humanitarian assistance.

While technical weapons will be essential to Ukraine’s continued military efforts, this week President Zelenskyy re-emphasized the necessity of continued support from democratic nations. With a nod to the early days of the invasion and to current signs of public war-weariness, Zelenskyy reminded the West that the war is a fight for shared values and the joint security of the world. The regrouping of NATO and democratic allies and the continued efforts of the EU to limit purchases of Russian energy are part of the larger effort to stand-up against a nation that has denied another’s sovereignty, and with it, its democracy.

Finally, as to prove Zelensky’s point, Russia continues to attack any semblance of democratic activism within its own borders, and regularly penalizes and threatens those who question the war effort. Despite this, Russian citizens are increasingly using privacy tools like virtual private networks (VPNs), which allow anonymous access to foreign websites and restricted media. According to analysts, VPN services were downloaded to mobile devices in Russia more than 12 million times in the first weeks of July. This is a marked increase from January, when VPN apps were downloaded approximately 2 million times. While it’s unclear exactly what the Russians are reading or if this will impact political mobilization in Russia, technology has found another way through Putin’s defenses.