July 26, 2024
This Sunday, Venezuela holds presidential elections – and Maduro has made it clear he’ll do everything he can to cling to power. For the first time in nearly a decade, longstanding Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro- whose dismal approval ratings hover between 15-20% – faces a serious challenge from an opposition candidate. And Maduro seems to recognize his precarious position – at a recent rally in front of his supporters, he declared that a victory for the “fascist” opposition would lead the country to a “bloodbath” and a “fratricidal civil war.”
But the opposition, which is typically weakened by internal fractures, has been united under the leadership of Maria Corina Machado – a longtime opponent of Chavismo, who won the primaries with 93% of the votes. While this threatening outcome led Maduro to promptly disqualify Machado from holding office, Edmundo Gonzalez, a little-known diplomat, has since taken up the helm and is riding the opposition’s unity and enthusiasm. While Gonzalez’s name will appear on the ballot, Machado remains the engine behind the opposition’s momentum.
The regime reasoned that the obscure Gonzalez would be unable to maintain the opposition’s unity. This was a miscalculation; with Machado’s endorsement, Gonzalez now leads in the electoral movement. While he may be perceived as a somewhat more acceptable candidate by the regime because he favors a democratic transition and possible amnesty for standing government officials, Maduro will do everything possible to block him from being elected and taking office. Maduro himself is wanted by the United States government with a bounty of $15 million for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and corruption. Indeed, a loss for Maduro, who is already holding 300 political prisoners, could mean prison for him and his inner circle.
But there is now cautious hope among the opposition that the results will favor Gonzalez so decisively that it will force the regime to either blatantly steal the election or negotiate a transition with moderate factions of the opposition. If the regime opts to steal an election it lost by a landslide, it will invite international condemnation and more importantly, could spark the kind of social upheaval that could even lead some of Maduro’s followers to turn against him and create an unstable situation with an uncertain outcome.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
