December 16, 2022
Assessing the domestic situations in Russia, Iran, and China remains challenging, and current events are threatening to further rewind globalization. It’s difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from Putin’s recent decision to cancel his traditional televised year-end news conference. It’s unclear if he’s trying to avoid fielding questions about the war in Ukraine and the faltering economy, or if are there more personal health or domestic threats at play.
Likewise, since the Mahsa Amini protests erupted in Iran two months ago, the Western media has struggled to provide an accurate picture of what’s really happening inside Iran. This is evidenced by the recent and widely shared news that Iran was shutting down its “Morality Police” only to be quickly withdrawn as untrue. The back and forth on the story makes the Western media look untrustworthy and amplifies allegations that our news is “fake” by our autocratic adversaries. This week, a 23-year-old Iranian protestor, who was accused of violence against Iranian paramilitary members, was publicly hanged in Iran, but no one really knows how many other Iranians have died, are in custody or will be subject to a similar fate for their protests. Worse, if the Western media reports a figure, exactly who is going to believe it?
Interpreting and reporting on domestic conditions in China is also a challenge. China is ending its zero-covid policy, but it’s unknown whether and how Beijing will respond to the surge in cases and what downstream effects the emerging situation will have on China’s elderly and vulnerable. Whether China decided to reverse its policy due to widespread protest or because infections could no longer be contained, confusion and instability is likely to follow, which is anathema to Chinese doctrine. Unfortunately, this will likely be accompanied by an even a stronger crackdown on the press so that the debacle cannot be recorded.
Since the initial Covid-19 outbreak and infection in Wuhan, China has propagated online disinformation to cloud the global understanding of its domestic Covid outbreaks, death figures, and policies on containment attempts. This would be one thing if the virus only affected China, but the pandemic has demonstrated that our domestic policies now have inherent international implications. And while the world has been underwhelmed by Russia’s cyberwarfare in Ukraine, Moscow remains impressive and active in its disinformation campaigns about the war both inside Russia and across the world.
In this environment, asymmetrical action against Western targets will only worsen. The recent Viktor Bout-Brittney Griner prisoner exchange highlighted a problem that has challenged myriad US Presidential administrations since John F. Kennedy traded Gary Powers for Rudolf Abel and only seems to be getting worse. Notably, there’s been a significant increase in the number of American prisoners held by foreign governments over the past decade, and most of these prisoners are being held in Russia, China, Iran, Syria and Venezuela. While there are difficult political implications to this uptick, there are also security implications for American travelers, businesspeople and journalists who have over the years been able to visit these nations and share a more accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground.
Amid the global turbulence, new political alignments are taking place which are thankfully less easy to conceal. This week, in a meeting with a notably lower-level Chinese official, Iranian President Raisi expressed his outrage that China and Saudi Arabia were partnering up. Raisi was responding to the outcome of the first China-Gulf States summit held last week that resulted in a cooperation agreement between China, Saudi Arabia and a few other Gulf States on issues like nuclear security, nuclear energy and space exploration. Competition for influence in the region is apparent, particularly as energy access and pricing remains an essential component of economic well-being and national security. Iran and Russia continue to increase their trade, not only because Russia sees Iran as an experienced sanctions-evader but also to balance out foreign influence and access in the Middle East.
All this chaos can not only be an obstacle but also an opportunity for the United States. The Biden administration is also looking to expand US influence in Africa, where China and Russia have long been competing for prominence. This week Biden held a summit with 49 African leaders where he announced billions of dollars in support and investment to promote African infrastructure, health, and the digital economy, among other development initiatives. While follow-up by Washington will be key to the success of the increased US-Africa relationship, it doesn’t hurt that China and Russia are currently mired with domestic woes and don’t really have the capacity to fully invest right now.
