June 28, 2024
This week global headlines underscore that maintaining democracy is an active process. Wednesday’s failed military coup in Bolivia is good news for Latin American stability but also emphasizes that upholding democracy takes concerted vigilance. Thankfully, heads of state throughout the continent and political parties from across the spectrum — even a political opposition leader currently in jail — called for an end to the attempted coup and its undemocratic underpinnings. While hardly a model of good governance — with a cozy diplomatic posture to some autocratic states including Russia, a stagnated economy following decreased social spending after former President Morales’ natural-resource driven economic plan faltered due to stagnating commodity costs and low production, the brutal crackdown of rural and indigenous protests that followed, and a bitter ongoing political feud between rivals — the attempted coup was unable to breach the democratic norms of power transition.
Indeed, everyone aside from a few disgruntled generals recognized that a military coup was not the solution to Bolivia’s woes and would likely lead to even more dire conditions. These popular musings, however, are not insignificant given that post-pandemic life has been hard in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and elsewhere, but life has been hardest in Venezuela — the country in the region with the fewest vestiges of a functional democracy. Everywhere else — however imperfect — there is still hope and agency and the prospect that things could get better. The quick failure of the coup signaled to other aspiring military heads of state to temper their ambitions.
Wednesday’s events in Bolivia stand in stark contrast to West Africa, where a spate of coups these past few years often backed by Russian-affiliated militias have upended life for millions, leaving room for the exploitation of natural resources to the unique benefit of coup leaders and their friends and leaving the rest of the population vulnerable to Islamic insurgents resurging in the region. Elsewhere in Africa, however, Kenyan President Ruto relented to public outrage at new tax legislation and scuttled the law. This is a meaningful example of how democratic leaders are far more constrained and accountable to the will of their people.
The will of the people in Iran, France, and the UK will be on display at the ballot box in these coming days. Britain seems poised to bring the Tory leadership to a close after 14 years of political and economic stress in the aftermath of Brexit. Somewhat ironically, Macron’s France seems likely to usher in a new era of problematic governance that will require him to govern with either the far left or the far right — posing real issues for Europe to promote its security agenda, especially with regard to Ukraine.
But it is in Iran where eyes are turned most ardently wondering whether reformer Masoud Pezeshkian will beat one of three very conservative opponents. The presumption is that a reformer might look to stabilize the tinderbox in the Middle East — where myriad Iranian proxies are engaged in unrelenting provocations against Israel and its allies and where Israel seems poised if not certain to turn its full attention away from Gaza and towards Hezbollah. While the election will likely require a runoff to determine the winner, whatever the outcome of the almost farcical Iranian election, unlike in true and functional democracies, the real power in Tehran doesn’t lie with the Presidency and the will of the people will do little to circumscribe the agendas of Khamenei and the IRGC as they seek to destabilize the region, and in the process, the larger democratic world.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
