June 20, 2024
Modern warfare is raising key questions about how nations can best support allies at war. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the trend for much of the West was withdrawals- the United States had exited Afghanistan and was attempting to ratchet down its involvement in the Middle East, and France was exiting parts of West Africa. But with two Western allies now involved in active battles in Gaza and Ukraine, the issue of how to best support an ally at war – including through sending soldiers, weapons, money, or sharing intelligence and technology – has again come to the fore.
This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a dramatic political statement by travelling to North Korea for the first time in 24 years. Korean leader Kim Jong-Un responded with fanfare – rallying thousands of citizens to assemble in Pyongyang’s main square, waving Russian flags while dressed in the shared national colors of the two countries. But beneath the grand display, this was a critical business trip for Putin. And while the nations reportedly signed a strategic agreement to back one another up should either face “aggression”, what Putin really came for was weapons.
Russia’s current Minister of Defense stated in May that Russia’s “most pressing issue” was equipping and supplying its military with modern equipment like drones and electronic warfare systems. According to the Ukrainian military, the Russians have fired dozens of missiles from North Korea into Ukraine, and reporting shows that this equipment contains some of the latest foreign technology- even American and European components. A US State Department spokesman remarked this week that North Korea has transferred “dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions to aid Russia’s war effort.”
The need for modern weapons has also brought Iran and Russia closer together, and as both Iran and North Korea look to advance their nuclear programs further, access to weapons and components will continue to be a top priority that drives their political relations. Rearming groups like Hamas and Hezbollah will also remain a priority for Iran, particularly as Hezbollah is actively threatening war in Israel’s north. But weapons are also driving countries apart – for example, right now Azerbaijan is furious with France after President Macron signed a deal this week to supply Armenia with Caesar self-propelled howitzers and other weaponry.
One reason that providing military equipment has taken on added significance is that we are living in an era where political negotiations and pressures aren’t as effective for achieving peace. Just as the nature of warfare has shifted, and the tools needed to win are now smaller and nimbler – like drones, there are also implications here for conflict resolution. Broad pressure from international organizations and courts doesn’t seem to have the same clout or influence that it used to- particularly when countries like Russia themselves retain a seat on the UN Security Council and work to loosen regulations on nations like North Korea without consequence. If an aggressor isn’t held accountable for instigating war, they’re also not likely to be accountable for peace.
In addition to weakening an aggressor via political statements or pressures, other traditional tools to shift behavior – like sanctions and economic isolation – aren’t as effective in a multipolar world. And in an age of misinformation and disinformation, winning a war now has more components than what happens on the battlefield. Right now, losses on the battlefield don’t necessarily add up to losses of national- or worldwide- support of a war effort. Because the very notion of what it means to win has shifted, there’s also less incentive to call defeat too quickly.
Indeed, the ways that allies are choosing to support one another are evolving along with, and shaping, modern war. And with weapons appearing as an enduring support mechanism, instability is only expected to increase.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
