December 22, 2022
The dark days of the Winter Solstice is a cogent reminder that the world is in a great state of flux and there remains obscurity on how major crises will resolve in the coming months.
The official Covid news out of China belies anecdotal reports that ICUs are filling up and worst-case scenarios for deaths are entirely plausible. China’s obfuscation of these latest developments are not just worrisome because we lack a clear understanding of the current state of the pandemic but also because information on new variants will be slow to emerge as well. Forecasting on the downstream effects is difficult too as it will be harder to assess the impact this will have on supply chains as diverse as iPhones to critical medications and thus the wider impact on the fragile global economy. But we can anticipate that Western countries will look to further distance themselves from China in the coming months.
Also of central concern is Ukraine. This week, President Zelenskyy came to Washington to appeal for sustained support for the war against the Russian invasion. He left with more funding and the much-coveted Patriot missile defense system, which will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian rocket attacks against its critical infrastructure. Russia responded by vowing a limitless commitment to reaching the goals of its “special military operation.” Zelenskyy said that this coming year will bring a turning point, one that he hopes will see a victorious Ukraine and that can turn towards a major reconstruction project and European integration plan.
But for a Ukrainian victory to be possible, the West must maintain its unified support for Ukraine – which is being strained constantly under energy prices and inflation, domestic political dissent, and Quisling-like appeals for peace. Further, Russian resolve must falter. There are already significant strains on Russian resolve with reports of Russia running short on ammunition, woefully ill-equipped and disenfranchised soldiers, the increased and enduring effects of sanctions, and growing vocal criticism of the war, albeit often from the far right who are asking for even more brutality. Still, it makes Moscow’s promise for a long war seem less credible.
Zelenskyy’s most resonant statement to U.S. lawmakers was that funding Ukraine isn’t charity it’s an investment. Indeed, our investment in Ukraine’s future is a down payment on greater strength for the international order, for the enduring influence of democratic countries both internationally and domestically, and on an enduring peace for Europe and the world more generally. Our divestment would mean more chaos, less rule of law, and more war.
